The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly oil market report that the outlook for global oil demand growth is largely unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2018 and 1.4 mb/d in 2019, as a weaker economy is largely offset by lower oil prices. However, the OECD demand is expected to increase by 355 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2018, slowing to 285 kb/d in 2019.Oil demand is slowing in several non-OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity. The non-OECD demand forecast has been revised down by 165 kb/d for 2019.

Global oil supplies are growing rapidly, as record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offsets declines from Iran and Venezuela. October output was up 2.6 mb/d on a year ago. Non-OPEC output will grow by 2.4 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2019. OPEC crude output rose 200 kb/d in October to 32.99 mb/d, up 240 kb/d on a year ago. Losses of 0.4 mb/d from Iran and 0.6 mb/d from Venezuela were offset by increases from others.

After refined products stocks build of 0.7 mb/d in 3Q18, October refining margins plunged to the lowest levels since 2014. Global refinery throughput is also likely to exceed refined product demand both in 4Q18 and into 2019. OECD commercial stocks rose counter-seasonally by 12.1 mb in September to 2 875 mb. In 3Q18, stocks increased by 58.1 mb (630 kb/d), the largest gain since 2015.

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